Volatility · Strategy

Volatility Regimes in Crypto Options: How We Identify Mispricings

March 2026 · 6 min read · Atman Capital Research

When implied volatility diverges persistently from realised volatility, a systematic strategy can capture that spread with precision. This divergence — the volatility risk premium (VRP) — is one of the most persistent and exploitable anomalies in options markets.

The question is never whether VRP exists — it does, persistently. The question is whether you can manage the tail risk when it collapses.

Identifying Regime Transitions

Our Crypto Volatility Arbitrage Strategy uses statistical signals to identify when the market is transitioning between volatility regimes. In low-vol regimes, we favour short gamma. When signals indicate a transition, we rapidly flip to long gamma. Signals include IV/RV spreads across tenors, order flow imbalance, cross-asset correlation, and term structure dynamics.

Live Results

Since inception in July 2024: 25.5% total return, Sharpe 4.55, max drawdown just 1.83%. Sortino 6.76, win rate 69.9% across 438 trading days.

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